In just a few weeks, the British public will choose the party that is to form Her Majesty’s next Government. While after thirteen years in power, New Labour and Gordon Brown are well-known to voters, David Cameron and his Conservative Party are not. DC (which is what Tory Parliamentarians and activists call him) has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005, and is more than likely to be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. It would be good to know what his premiership might be like. To learn more about the future Conservative Government, we solicited views on David Cameron and the Conservative Party under his leadership from Michael Howard, David Cameron’s predecessor as Party Leader; Nigel Lawson, Chancellor of the Exchequer under Margaret Thatcher, and Geoffrey Howe, Foreign Secretary under Margaret Thatcher.
Michael Howard, in fact, used to be David Cameron’s boss. Not only did DC succeed him as Leader of the Opposition, but was also special adviser to Michael Howard when he served as Home Secretary. Michael Howard did much to prepare the ground for David Cameron’s 2005 leadership bid. Did he ever mark the man who worked for him in the Home Office as a future leader of the Party? “Oh I did, certainly. His mother reminded me that I had told her more than ten years ago that if it was possible to say if someone in their twenties, which he was then, that they would become Prime Minister, I would say David would become Prime Minister, which I think he will.”
Nigel Lawson was Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1983 – 1989, and was so good at his job that Mrs Thatcher held him to be her “unassailable Chancellor”. He thinks the number one problem a future Conservative Government will face is the very real structural issue of public finances. In a bad state before the recession hit, and of course now much worse, the question of how the government raises revenue, apportions expenditure, and controls the vast sums borrowed under Gordon Brown’s Chancellorship will need to be addressed immediately. Lord Lawson believes this issue to be more important for Britain than for any other country in the world. “The state of public finances is very, very bad indeed.”
The former Chancellor has in recent years become a notable figure in the field of climate change economics. What does he think of the fact that most Conservative PPCs (prospective parliamentary candidates) do not follow the 2006 mantra: “vote blue, go green”? “I think that is probably the case. It’ll be interesting to see, in the next Parliament, how opinion evolves. You’re not going to get any change between the next few days and the election. I mean people have staked out their positions and they’d be bloody stupid if they shifted now, but I think that after the election you will see an evolution. And the fact is in the Conservative Party, both Members of Parliament, candidates, and a lot of voluntary workers, are very unhappy about this policy, which I think will be a factor that has to be taken into account.”
And what of the man himself? Lord Lawson finds it very difficult to judge what sort of Prime Minister David Cameron will make. “I think it is very difficult to form a judgement now. I think this is true with most party leaders. Even with Margaret Thatcher who was much more clear cut, I don’t think that most people quite knew what to expect when she became Prime Minister. I believe, to be honest, that we won the 1979 election because people were determined to get rid of the Labour Government. They had had enough. You could only assess Margaret Thatcher by her performance in office, and I think with David Cameron it will be the same.”
Lord Lawson became an MP in 1974. The cabinet of which he was an integral part was not only notably radical compared to Conservative Governments both before and since, but also helped to develop the mainstream Thatcherite consensus followed by the Major, Blair and Brown Governments. He believes, however, that on the whole the party has not changed much since he first stood for election.
Geoffrey Howe feels much the same way: “I think the essentials are the same. It isn’t a deeply ideological party, like the Labour Party has always traditionally been.” Lord Howe was Margaret Thatcher’s longest serving Cabinet minister: her Foreign Secretary, her Chancellor, her Deputy Prime Minister, and eventually her political assassin in November 1990. For Lord Howe, the Conservatives have always been, and have always tried to be, an all-embracing party with the support of every class and every kind.
He believes David Cameron has been remarkably effective as a leader, especially in neutralising the image of the Conservatives as the “nasty party”, though surely Gordon Brown has done enough to earn that title as David Cameron has done to shirk it. Where he is perhaps surprised is that David Cameron has not followed Margaret Thatcher in one respect. “Margaret, don’t forget, had been a Cabinet Minister and had much more experience when she was elected leader than David had, and when she became leader, she kept in her Shadow Cabinet, or put into her Shadow Cabinet: Halesham, Carrington, Whitelaw, Thorneycroft, Soames, people who had been in Cabinet as far back as Winston Churchill. And I think that David could’ve strengthened his position had he done this early on.”
And moving to that seemingly eternal Tory bugbear, Europe, an issue Lord Howe has always felt strongly about: it does not sit well with him that a majority of Conservative PPCs believe this country’s relationship with the European Union needs to be fundamentally renegotiated. Since he left school, Lord Howe has believed that Britain should take a leading position in Europe, that Europe can magnify Britain’s influence. However he is not concerned with any change in Conservative position on the European Union. He notes that William Hague (Shadow Foreign Secretary) and David Cameron stress that Britain will remain in Europe, and on that there is no question. The curious thing, Lord Howe points out, is that there has been a kind of rhythm in British politics, that when parties are in opposition, they feel obliged to be Euro-sceptic, and when in government they feel obliged to play the European game.
As far as the Party’s chances are in the General Election, the date of which has yet to be announced, the men are in agreement. Reserved optimism, perhaps surprising considering the deep, deep unpopularity of Gordon Brown, is the general consensus. Michael Howard doesn’t mince his words: “I trust the judgement of the British public and I can’t believe that they’d want another five years of Gordon Brown. And I think David has done a good job in showing that we do have a convincing alternative.” Lord Lawson would be astonished if the Conservatives were not the largest single party, despite the bias in the electoral system against the Tories. Whether the party has an overall majority remains to be seen.
The magnitude of the victory required for the Conservative Party to return to government is considerable. If, in a few weeks the Party does gain a majority, it would be electoral reversal of a magnitude not seen in this country for 80 years. It is unsurprising that all three Party grandees are impressed with a man who has presented the Conservatives with the most realistic prospect of electoral victory since 1992. That they agree with his politics is to be expected, considering DC is the standard-bearer for the Conservative Party and the economic consensus crafted by Lords Howe and Lawson. As Nigel Lawson said, one cannot judge the Cameron premiership before it happens. We do know, however, what former Prime Minister Sir John Major thinks of David Cameron. In fact he said it here at the London School of Economics three years ago: “here, in David Cameron, is a very attractive political package”.
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